Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Interning for an International Trade Organization During the Onset of Brexit: What it means, what is doesn’t seem to mean, and will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister? by Merritt Ogle

Important note: I am by no means any sort of economic authority but am interested in the economics of Brexit.

            As I wrote about in my last blog post, before interning at Commerce, I knew little about Commerce. However, it wasn’t until the results of the Brexit votes came in, that I realized how much I have learned about the global economy and that I am not as unaware as I once was. If someone had asked me about my thoughts on a Brexit at this time last year, I would have responded: “Wow, all of my favorite things come from the UK: Ellie Goulding, Hobnob cookies, good English tea. European integration definitely seems important there.”

            When I was in meeting on Global Markets on Wednesday of last week (the day before the vote), two fellows from the Council of Foreign Relations were discussing the potential implications of Brexit but they both concluded that it seemed less than likely that the “leave” camp would win the referendum vote. This seemed to be a common sentiment of those around me on that Wednesday; people thinking “that would be crazy if that happened, but it probably won’t.” Just around 24 hours later, voters in the UK would make fools out of those of us who just didn’t believe it could happen.

            I have been asked a few times this week about what economists at work are saying and what does this mean for us, and what does this mean for the UK. And after attending an event this morning presented by Joseph Lake from The Economist Intelligence Unit, I feel like I can put some thoughts down about what I have learned so far.

1. Leaving is about more than racism and xenophobia.

Yes, while leaving the EU has significant implications for the immigration policies of the UK, there are many reasons that were presented for wanting to leave. We are seeing this growing sense of nationalism around the world and it definitely reared its head in the UK in the June 23rd Referendum vote. To some, leaving the EU is an act of “taking back” what had been “taken away”, splitting voters between the young and old, the urban and rural, and the nationalist and internationalist. The irony in this vote is that the younger a voter is, the more likely they were to vote to stay in the EU; however, that young voter is forced to live with the consequences of the vote for a much longer time, on average.

2. The long-term political consequences are still unknown.

The “contagion effect” of other EU countries potentially holding similar votes has now increased with the Brexit with The Economist predicting that in the next two years the Netherlands, Denmark, and France could hold similar votes. If Nexit, Dexit, and Frexit occur, this could lead to a breakup of the Euro zone (yikes.) Scotland could be looking at a second referendum for independence, as they all voted to remain in the EU. And Ireland could be reunited if Northern Ireland also feels the desire to part ways with England, Scotland, and Wales. Also, Boris Johnson could potentially be the next Prime Minister of the UK.

3. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts a large economic hit to the UK from 2017-2020.

EIU has predicted a UK recession in 2017 with a sharp rise in unemployment. Financial firms will continue to leave London and will move to Dublin, Berlin, Paris, Frankfurt, etc. In addition, this will affect the US market in slowing economic growth in 2016 and 2017. The volatility and uncertainty of the market will lead to decreases in investment which will also have implications for businesses and consumers. The forecast for global GDP growth has also been cut by $200 billion as a result of Brexit. (As a note: $200 billion is the size of the economy of Vietnam or Portugal. If not obvious, this is pretty significant.)

4. “But Merritt, does this have implications for the 2016 US Presidential Election?!?!?” EIU says it does not.

Even with the rise of nationalism on a global scale, EIU predicts that Democrats will win the Presidency and Senate in November. Clinton is predicted to beat Trump through attracting a broader demographic and appealing more to the middle ground voter. However, EIU also predicts that Clinton will only serve one term with a Republican being elected in 2020. They predict the next recession to occur in 2019, which in the second half of the Clinton presidency, does not bode well for reelection. However, the Clinton presidency could be characterized by business friendly policies, legislative gridlock, hawkish foreign policy, and more equitable social policies.

5. There is talk of a “re-do” referendum vote in the UK? Will it happen?

From a democratic standpoint, it shouldn’t. Even though there is a petition circulating for one, telling 52% of the voters that the “chose wrong” kind of defeats the purpose of a vote.

6. How is America looking post-Brexit?

Economic forecasting is still looking pretty good for the next few years in America. We are reaching near full employment, which is giving employees more wage bargaining power so people are more employed and making more money than a few years ago. Also, something really important to know about US GDP is that it is upheld mostly by consumer spending (2/3 of total) so as long as people have money to spend, GDP is not going to tank even if business investment and exports did. The Dollar is also now projected to be stronger against the Euro and Sterling than it was before Brexit.


Conclusion: There are many predictions of what is to come for UK, the EU, and the global economy… BUT this is an unprecedented mess. So, continue to follow the news closely for more information.

Sunday, June 19, 2016

A WAIP Father's Day

By Nick Roll

Disclaimer: In this column, I give the reader advice. However, I am prone to packing my lunch and forgetting it at home at least once a week, and I don’t understand how cranes work (If they build the building, how do you build the crane? Another crane? Where does the madness end? How is anything ever built?). The point is, maybe take any advice I give with a grain, or two, of salt.

I’m not one for sentiment, much less sentimental blog posts. But it’s Father’s Day, I’m away from home and my gut, full of ~feelings~ or whatever, is telling me to fire away with some hot takes:

I love not being home for Father’s Day.

Not being home for Father’s Day is a testament to my dad’s success. I can’t be home because I’m participating in this excellent program. And I couldn’t have gotten here without the guidance of my dad and all the things he’s taught me.

So a little advice from a 21-year-old who is in absolutely no position to give advice to anyone, ever:

Strive to spend every Father’s Day away from home doing awesome stuff that you couldn’t have done without your dad. Don’t just say, “Happy Father’s Day,” embrace it. Live it.

There are always other weekends to visit home.

Update: I watched a Youtube video on cranes. Absolutely wild. I still don’t understand them.

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Outdoor Adventure in D.C.

When I decided to spend my summer interning in D.C., I assumed I would be wearing a suit all the time. But this weekend, I found myself in the middle of the Potomac in a kayak, paddling through the water and soaking in the sun. We approached an island in the middle of the river, which was really just a collection of rocks, dead trees, and some vegetation. I pulled my kayak up onto one of the partially submerged rocks and climbed out. As I explored the tiny little island and tried not to twist my ankle, I got the chance to reflect on how much outdoors time I’ve enjoyed during my short time in D.C.

In fact, it has been so much easier to get outside and get fresh air in D.C. than it has ever been to do so in Columbus. Just this weekend, I kayaked on the Potomac, tossed the Frisbee in the park, and took a walk through a garden off of the National Mall. Maybe it’s the weather or maybe it’s my own desire to really explore, but either way, D.C. has surprised me in its ability to supply outdoor adventure – and I haven’t even been to the National Arboretum yet.

So if there are any future WAIP-ers reading this – or even for those current WAIP-ers – make sure you get out and take advantage of all the outdoor activities D.C. has to offer.

-Adam S.

Friday, June 10, 2016

Take a Deep Breath

WAIP is great.  I get to intern in the best office, experience the nation’s capital, and meet new people – many very driven and successful – who share similar interests.  Plenty of the people that it attracts are those that self-identity as “Type A” people who are extremely high energy and outgoing.  I on the other hand seem to be a mix between an intro/extrovert who needs me time to recharge before hanging with what can only described as professional socialites.  At first I tried to function as a more extrovert than I was and I burnt out.  After coming to the obvious realization that this was not working, I have made an effort to get me personal time beyond the usual time I spend at the gym or reading to allow me to catch my breath and relax.  At times that means taking a night to myself instead of hanging out, and it seems to be a good idea to give myself the break I need to function.  This city is fast paced and it will leave people behind; however, that does not mean people like me should rush and change who we are.  Instead, let’s take a deep breath, and treat ourselves to the personal time we require.

         On a completely unrelated note this city can be very polarized politically.  I personally experienced this in a couple of notable and unexpected ways.  At the same time, I can say from my personal time as a WAIPer, the political discussions amongst ourselves have been the most respectful ones I have experienced.  It gives me a little hope that if people that are so politically charged can be civil about politics maybe there is some hope for things to become less polarized here without a massive overhaul of political practices.

John Christenson

It’s 11:59 p.m., my deadline is at midnight and I still haven’t written my blog post

Answering an email usually takes anywhere from 15 seconds to 2 minutes, yet somehow, more often than not, just the prospect of even opening the Gmail app on my cracked iPhone 5 sends an existential dread to envelope my entire body.

Because just reading that email — let alone answering it — means I have one more thing to do.

Thus is the life of a WAIP student.

Nobody comes to WAIP without being the kind of person who constantly has just a little too much on his or her plate. Naturally, the program attracts overachievers (or at least, people who, in theory, could be overachievers. I’m honestly not sure if I’ve even filled out that internship contract yet. It was due May 20. Sorry, Katy).

So, that email — whether it’s plans for something innocuous like a happy hour, or something ~important~ (I think happy hour might qualify for both categories, personally) — represents one. more. thing. And not just any “thing,” but the Thingalways looming, constantly nagging.

Between work, a capstone paper that I may or may not have actually started, commitments at home, commitments in Columbus, writing blog posts and trying to find time to finally schedule that happy hour, the Thing is never short on material.

But don’t worry. I wouldn’t want to spend my summer any other way, and I’m sure my 13 roommates feel the same.

There’s a certain beauty to being surrounded by people who also choose to spend their summers slightly stressed out and never with more than a few hours to spare. Because no matter how crazy things get this summer, I’m doing exactly what I want to be doing and I’m surrounded by people in the exact same boat.

I’m constantly busy, but so are my roommates, and so is the other townhouse of WAIP-ers. And it provides not only a common bond, but also a source of energy and hope — the energy and hope to finally get around to doing that Thing™.

We’re all in this together.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go answer that email. I hope they don’t notice that I’m responding at midnight.


— Nick Roll